Rajars herald comeback for commercial radio

Chris Moyles, BBC Radio 1

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Industry figures believe commercial radio can begin a genuine renaissance away from the glare of the City spotlight after an improved second quarter Rajar performance.

Consolidation in the sector has seen the likes of GCap Media, Chrysalis Radio and Emap Radio all delist under new owners and many believe going private will help them battle the BBC.

They are also encouraged by commercial radio increasing its share by 1.3% over the quarter, boosting its share of overall listening to 42.4%.

Overall, the BBC had a 55.5% share over the quarter, down from the record 56.8% in the first quarter of 2008.

Audiences slipped for two of its best-known shows, Radio 1's Chris Moyles and Terry Wogan on Radio 2, by a combined 872,000 listeners.

One source at a major commercial broadcaster said this could be the point at which commercial radio "draws a line in the sand" and encourages advertisers to start coming back to the medium.

"Commercial radio has had a poor run to say the least, but there is every chance we will look back to Q2 2008 and say it was when commercial radio began its fight back," he said. "It's only one set of results and not even an amazing one at that, but homogenisation and fewer players at the mercy of shareholders is the perfect situation for a renaissance. The results could not have come at a better time - I just hope it's not the bounce of the dead cat."

Bauer Radio managing director of national brands Mark Story added that being a privately owned company as opposed to a listed broadcaster had helped boost morale.

"There's no more of this reporting to the City every 13 weeks and worrying about knee-jerk reactions," he said. "Now we can make long-term plans, unlike before."

But Grant Goddard of Enders Analysis warned that the real evidence of how well equipped commercial radio is to challenge the BBC will come when its Q2 revenue figures are published in the next few weeks.

"These figures are more critical than the Rajars because of the current economic climate," he said. "People want to see how radio has held up during the credit crunch."

Another analyst agreed, adding that the Radio Centre had been "very shrewd" in the way it handled the results by highlighting the quarter-on-quarter gain. He said the organisation had not picked out that year on year, the commercial sector's Q2 listening share was down from 43.5% to 42.4%.

"It's the Radio Centre's job to get excited about a rise in listening, so fair enough" he said. "But the commercial sector could hardly have done any worse than its previous Rajar results - the worst on record. If you are getting really excited over a 1.3% rise then you clearly have problems."