Ratings: Is iPlayer having an impact on BBC2's figures?

BBC2's Top Gear

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I don't understand cars. And I don't understand those who drool over them. They are a means of transport. The end. I have a vague idea of how they work. By this I mean, they need petrol, which flows into the engine and… blah blah blah. I'm boring myself here. So here's a question: why does Top Gear do so well?

This week's show on Sunday at 8pm attracted 5 million, a 23% share, down 1 million viewers on last week. But it was still easily the most watched programme outside ITV1/BBC1.

Here's a bit of unproven statistical analysis for you. Top Gear loses viewers and the movie War of the Worlds on BBC1 at the same time delivers 4.4 million, a 20% share. Could it be that the adrenaline junkies who get all in a lather as Clarkson test drives the latest penis extension are also fans of high octane Tom Cruise vehicles?

I'm just putting two and two together here, but I'll hazard a guess that if BBC1 were to show A Room with a View next Sunday, Top Gear's ratings might be back up above 6 million.

Another success for BBC2 was Monday night's Dragons' Den at 9pm which was watched by 3.4 million, a 15% share. The idea of bed linen with lines down the centre to prevent "encroaching" was both hilarious and ridiculous. Like a line down the bed is going to make the slightest bit of difference to your average mattress-hogger, when pushing and shoving achieve nothing.

The success of BBC2's flagship programmes masks the fact that, like all the terrestrials, its audience share is declining. For the year to date BBC2 received a 7.8% share versus 8.6% in 2007. My hypothesis is that BBC2's audience of light viewers might make it particularly vulnerable to the growth in channels and on-demand viewing. Could the BBC iPlayer for example be contributing to BBC2's decline in viewing?

It sounds crazy, until you look at the numbers. As viewers we watch an average of two hours of BBC2 each week. If you assume there are 56.7 individuals aged four and over in the UK (Barb), as a country we watch a total of 115 million hours of BBC2 per week, or around 460 million hours per month.

In June, 20 million programmes were streamed or downloaded from the BBC iPlayer. If all of these shows were an hour long (stay with me here) that makes a total of 20 million hours. This is 4.3% of the total number of BBC2 hours watched by UK viewers per month. So the iPlayer numbers, though small, are no longer insignificant and it is not inconceivable that they are harming BBC2's audience figures.

There are lots of variables here. Firstly, there is no demographic viewing data available for the iPlayer. Secondly, we have no idea what the 20 million iPlayer viewers would be watching if they didn't have the iPlayer. On the other hand, the iPlayer's on-demand functionality clearly appeals to time-poor lighter viewers of TV. These same light viewers are BBC2's target audience.

Until we have a sophisticated measurement system for all forms of TV, not to say all media channels, it will be difficult to confirm or deny this theory. The current measurement system simply can't keep up with the technological advances in television viewing. There you go. Hot on the heels of alienating BBC2, I've gone and upset Barb into the bargain. Not a bad morning's work.
Adrian English is media director at Carat. Philip Reevell is away