Reevell's Ratings: Autumn season starts with a grim outlook

Big Brother's Davina

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This September is the start of a watershed season for commercial broadcasting. Just as grim revenue forecasts cast a shadow over the schedules, Ofcom is set to remould the PSB landscape.

ITV's PSB responsibilities could be removed with one hand, while the other hand will tie a load more baggage onto Channel 4 in return for a new funding deal.  It's the most radical upheaval in broadcasting since the 1991 franchise auction.

How are ITV1 and C4 performing as they enter the new season?  The primetime share figures for the year to the end of August show ITV1 is down from 25% to 23.6% and C4 is down from 9% to 7.7% year on year.

The autumn season traditionally boosts ITV1's share. Last year from September to the end of the year its primetime share averaged 25.6%, so it was able to end the year on a steady 25.3%. 

However, this year ITV1 is going into autumn with a primetime share that is 6% lower than this time last year. Last year's seasonal uplift was just 2%.

Things are tougher still for C4 with a year-to-date primetime share that is 14% lower than last year. C4 tends to experience a post-Big Brother anti-climax in the year's final four months. Last year its primetime share over this period averaged 6.8%, compared with 9% to the end of summer. This left it with an average primetime share for the year of 8.2%. If C4 falls below 7% this autumn too, it will have a disappointing year end again. 

Although C4's argument for assistance from public money might be strengthened by these numbers, Horseferry Road really needs strong autumn figures. But where will the big hits come from?

Both ITV and C4 will hope that this week's table augurs well for the future - ITV1 had some good numbers for X Factor; Saturday's show at 7.10pm attracted 8.1 million/43% share. It also had a decent share on Sunday for Martin Clunes: A Man and his Dogs, at 9pm with 5.5 million/22% share. 

Meanwhile, C4 dominates the top 25 table with The Secret Millionaire and Big Brother. The former had 3.7 million/16% share on Tuesday at 9pm while the latter had 3.4 million/14% share on Wednesday at 9pm.
Even so, C4 may well be enviously eyeing BBC2 where Mock the Week recorded its best figures to date with 3.25 million/15% share on Thursday at 9pm. Indeed even BBC1 may be eyeing it as Mock the Week's figures rivalled Friday's Would I Lie to You at 9pm, with 3.3 million/15% share. 

Deteriorating consumer confidence could hurt genres such as property and help others. As money gets tight, viewers may find interest in consumer shows, such as BBC1's Rogue Restaurants, which had its highest rating of the current run this week with 4.6 million/23% share on Thursday at 8pm. ITV1 may look at those figures and wonder why Fiddles, Cheat and Scams on Tuesday at 9pm only pulled 3.4 million/14% share. Part of the answer is it faced opposition from BBC1 comedy, Mutual Friends, which opened on Thursday at 9pm with 4.6 million/20% share.

I imagine Dawn Airey at the other commercial network, Five, will be watching both ITV1 and C4's autumn schedule with interest - and hoping for the worst.