Study commissioned by MPA suggests scheme could also create $250bn economic impact between 2027 and 2035
A US federal production incentive could generate $125bn in additional production activity between 2027 and 2035, according to a new report commissioned by the Motion Picture Association (MPA).
The report, Economic Impact Of A Proposed US Federal Production Incentive, was compiled by management firm Olsberg SPI and endorsed by the pro-incentive industry umbrella group US Film & TV Production Coalition, which represents studios, guilds, agencies and vendors.
It comes in the wake of recent statements by president Trump in favour of an incentive, a move that has attracted bipartisan support and which was initially mooted last year in Hollywood envoy Jon Voigt’s plan to revive the US production sector.
The study said that an incentive could contribute $249.1bn in total economic impact over the eight-year period, with an average of 143,500 full time equivalent total jobs supported annually across the country and $133.1bn in additional total labour income.
The report’s economic model is predicated on a specific scenario that the incentive would take the form of a 20% transferable tax credit with uplifts, available only to US residents, and based on a $1m minimum spend threshold.
The study said the incentive was likely to be “stackable”, combining with existing incentives in 39 US states along the lines of the incentives infrastructure in Canada and Australia.
The parameters assume that the US share of global film production spend could nearly double from current levels and reach 65% by 2030 based on FilmLA research and a 3.7% forecast annual growth in global spend based on government statistics.
The study notes that in 2025, the US share of $13.7bn global film spend reached 34%, while the share of $27.7bn television spend reached 42%, according to a 2026 report by intelligence platform ProdPro.
Were an incentive not to pass through Congress, the US share of global film spend could decline to 25%, a drop of nine percentage points or more than 26%.
MPA chairman and chief exec Charles Rivkin unveiled the report at a virtual press conference on Tuesday, describing a federal incentive as being “a gamechanger” for the US industry.
The report was endorsed by Trump’s special ambassador to Hollywood, Jon Voight, as well as producer Steven Paul and Scott Karol of SP Media Group, California Representative Laura Friedman, FilmUSA president Katie Pryor, IFTA president and chief exec Jackie Brenneman, IATSE, teamsters, talent agencies and the guilds.
Hollywood sources who spoke to Broadcast International sister title SAcreen at this week’s Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) said they thought it was highly unlikely a bill would come before Congress before the November midterm elections.
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