Reports last week that Time Warner had told Spanish telecoms giant Telefónica that it would be interested in bidding e2bn (£1.3bn) for Endemol confirmed suggestions that the production company behind Big Brother is now clearly 'in play'.
Telefónica and Time Warner refused to discuss details of the proposal but reports have since emerged that it was an offer made some time ago and that Telefónica has said it has no immediate plans to sell.
But while Telefónica might not be erecting the For Sale sign outside the Big Brother house right now, it's only a matter of time.
Sometime, certainly within the next year, we are likely to find Endemol under new ownership, the big questions are who is likely to be the buyer - and what will it be getting for its money?
One thing is certain, Endemol won't fetch anything like the value it did in the heady days of the dotcom media bubble when Telefónica bought it from Jon De Mol for £3.5bn in 2000. The valuation on Telefónica's books is now understood to be around £2bn less.
But in a market where content is still king, Endemol is still regarded as a plum prize in the production market. The sale offers a buyer the chance to get its hands on one of the few indies with a track record of delivering innovative ratings winners which can be successfully distributed globally. Big Brother is its most famous success story, followed by a raft of other reality TV programmes including The Farm , Changing Rooms,Ground Force and Fear Factor.
Endemol, particularly in the UK, has also proved it can leverage new formats and technology, such as online and SMS, to drive audience traffic and revenue. UK chairman Peter Bazalgette talks about the company as a 'content creator' rather than programme-maker - and is adept at exploiting multimedia opportunities.
'Endemol - more than any other company we've come across - has a strong commercial side and can maximise those opportunities for advertisers and broadcasters,' says Laurence Munday, founding partner of broadcast content agency Drum, the company behind 02's sponsorship of Big Brother. And it has the network to leverage the value of international formats and shows - with offices in 22 markets.
Who will actually be the buyer is anyone's guess at the moment.
Theresa Wise, a partner from Accenture's media and entertainment practice, puts her money on the most likely buyer being a US media giant looking to get a strong foothold in the European broadcast market. Sony is seen as one possible buyer - but there could be several possible bidders.
'Most of the media majors, like Disney, Viacom and Time Warner - with the exception of News Corp - are highly weighted in the US but not generating revenue outside the States. They're all looking for growth and a key way to do this is by growing outside the US. Endemol is a serious and interesting acquisition with real weight and the ability to grow.'
Private equity firms have also been linked to a potential bid. Apax, Candover, 3i and Cinven have all reportedly shown an interest but all declined to comment. European private equity firm Bridgepoint, which funds All3Media, is not at all surprised by this interest. 'Endemol is the biggest European indie by some considerable distance. Usually the issue with buying a business like this is that it doesn't make a huge impact but Endemol is a meaningful purchase. It's on a different scale to other indies,' says Jason McGibbon, investment director at Bridgepoint.
Rival indies are unlikely to be on the bid list either. Again size rules out most of them. In Europe only RTL, which has a e2bn acquisition fund is thought to have the scale and ambition to make a bid - but it already has Fremantle and might baulk at the cost and wonder whether the group needs two strong production operations.
But what impact will the sale have on the UK industry?
One obvious implication in the UK is that a sale to a US media company could well end Endemol's indie status. Time Warner for example owns Cartoon Network in the UK, which would disqualify Endemol as an indie. The same is true of Viacom (MTV) and Disney (although ironically possibly not News Corp since it doesn't own Sky but does have the largest single shareholding in it).
That would clearly have a knock-on effect for the broadcasters which are in business with Endemol - including the BBC which would have to look again at what could be counted toward the indie quota. (Endemol was the single biggest supplier by hours of programming to BBC1 and second biggest to BBC2 in 2003 according to Broadcast's Indie Survey). It was the third biggest supplier to Channel 4 by hours.
Endemol has even set up studios in Bristol specifically for its Channel 4 output, which some commentators claim shows that the indie is no ordinary supplier. 'Endemol has a special relationship with all of the major broadcasters in the UK. If its status changes that will have a big impact for it - no matter how you look at it,' one says.
The quality of the people and their experience is one of the main factors why Endemol UK is so successful - and a key question is what will happen to them after the sale. Many of the company's key executives, such as chief executive Tom Barnicoat, creative director Tim Hincks and managing director Nikki Cheetham, have contracts that expire next year.
Bazalgette is understood to have extended his contract beyond 2005, but the question of locking in the current management in the UK will still be critical for any new owner.
The fear factor could be that an unhappy UK management team walk out of the offices in Shepherd's Bush and either start their own firm or join another indie. They wouldn't be short of offers. 'If the UK management team of Endemol suddenly became available we'd be crazy not to talk to them,' says RDF chief executive David Frank.
'They're a very talented team and we hold them in the highest regard.'
But Frank rules out the notion that RDF could actually bid for Endemol UK if it was broken up and sold off. 'If I thought that was going to happen I'd be working frantically to put a deal together, but all indications we have is that Telefónica won't be selling off pieces of Endemol and will want to do one deal for the whole thing.'
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