What parts of the media will be hardest hit by the recession?
Advertising-supported media will be hardest hit: Screen Digest forecasts a 7% decline for UK TV advertising in 2009, a figure that is likely to be revised downwards. ITV1 will bear the brunt, but digital channels will not be immune to spending cuts (more bad news for ITV, which enjoyed growth for its digital channels until last year).
Whose businesses will prove most resilient?
Consumers tend to stay in more during a downturn and generally view computer games as offering good entertainment value. BSkyB's business has held up in previous recessions, and we think subscription businesses will continue to prove robust.
The cinema sector reported a healthy year in 2008 with box-office revenues expected to increase 5% year on year to $850m (£590m) in 2008, a new all-time record in revenue terms. A cinema ticket remains good value compared with other out-of-home entertainment options.
How is UK commercial TV faring in relation to the rest of Europe?
In terms of TV advertising, the UK will be worse off than almost every-where except Spain. We expect a 12% drop.
In terms of paid-for digital content, the UK market is the largest in Europe. Combined consumer-level revenues for online music, movies and TV generated more than £150m in 2008, more than double the next-largest market, Germany. However, most online content consumption is free. Even when online advertising and transactional content sales are combined, revenues from the UK's digital market are still very small.